Energy Policy For Libya Environmental Sciences Essay

Libya is Africa’s largest oil producing and exporting country, located in the heart of North Africa, the country is home to 6 million inhabitants distributed over an area covering 1,750,000 Km2. Crude oil is an integral part of the Libyan economy and forms the basis on which the Libyan energy policy is formed, however, with increasing global drive towards more sustainable and renewable energy sources, admits issues of climate change, and global warming, there has been renewed and concerted efforts shown by nations around the world to adopt more sustainable energy sources, this has been highlighted in varied global convections and treaties amongst which are, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the 2009 Copenhagen summit to mention but a few. This paper attempts to highlight the place of a developing nation and major oil producer and exporter like Libya in renewed efforts to ensure lower dependence on fossil fuel sources, the country’s current energy policies and the state or extent of renewable energy resource in the country admits global CO2 reduction targets of 80% by 2050 to stem human contributions to climate change and global warming from fossil fuels.

LIBYAN ENERGY BACKGROUND

In Libya, the daily average of solar radiation on a horizontal plane is 7.1 kWh/m2/day within coastal regions, and 8.1 kWh/m2/day in the southern region, with average sun duration of more than 3500 hours per year (Saleh Ibrahim, 1993). The national electric grid consists of high, medium and low voltage networks of about 12,000 km, 12,500 km and 7,000 km power lines respectively with an installed capacity is 5600 MW and a peak Load of 3650 MW (Saleh Ibrahim et al., 1998). However, despite the remarkable energy network for a population of 6 million, energy is mainly concentrated in the major cities as many villages and remote areas are located far away from these networks. The small population and small consumption needs of these areas make their connection to the grid less economically viable. This has led to the use of small diesel generators in these areas contributing albeit minimally to the CO2 emissions. Furthermore the total dependence on fossil fuel sources for the generation of electricity for the national grid belies the tenets of conventions and treaties on climate change, global warming and sustainable energy development. This however calls for the proper assessment of current energy policies in Libya and the place of renewable energy. Libyan renewable energy resource has the potential to provide clean and reliable energy sources which can be used in many applications in remote areas (electricity, water pumping, etc.) and even contribute to the national grid. Albeit the use of renewable energies has been introduced in a wide range of applications due to its convenience and economic attractiveness, application on a much larger scale in Libya has been hampered by the relative abundance of cheaper crude oil sources.

GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Carbon emission has witnessed a meteoric rise since the turn of the Industrial age, Industrial processes have churned up 37 percent of amount of carbon in the atmosphere to date (Boden et al, 2009), Since the advent of industrialization, massive use of fossil fuels for energy generation have been recorded, there has been increase in the amount of gaseous waste produced in homes, and from transportation. These Gases collectively result in forming a layer in the earth’s atmosphere shielding radiated sunlight from the earth’s surface, depleting earth’s ozone layer and causing general warming of the earth. The effect of these gases is known as the green house effect, the process of gradual warming of the earth is Global warming and the gases are referred to as green house gases.

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The gradual increase in the earth’s overall temperatures has a telling effect on activities and life contained in it. Scientist predict, that rising green house gas levels would result in greater earth warming and invariably melting of the ice caps, increase in ocean mean water levels (20mm by 2020), increased flooding of coastal lands enhanced drought in arid lands (IPCC, 2007) etc, and these are part of the deleterious effect of climate change, which has led to a global outcry for the reduction in the emission of gases that give rise to this effect and the setting of CO2 reduction target of 80% by the year 2050. The earth is said to have warmed up by 0.740C over the last hundred years and about 0.40C of this occurred in the last decade (DEFRA, 2006).

Agreements, declarations and treaties have been made in summits top on the list of which is the Copenhagen Summit of 2009 borne to develop and exploit means for carbon capture and storage, The Rio declaration of 1992 was to outline support for protection of the environment from the deleterious activities of man, while the Kyoto protocol of 1997, outlined the six major green house gases and set targets for governments to cut down on the production of these gases as waste.

Human Drivers

Greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere by various mechanisms, chief amongst them is the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas. Over the past fifty years, growth of the world economy has been hinged on worldwide energy use this has resulted in increase in global concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the air.

The Kyoto Protocol highlighted anthropogenic emissions as a major cause and as an addendum listed six greenhouse gases.

The KYOTO Protocol

In 1997, the United Nations having evaluated the potential threat of global warming and the attendant causes (anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases) proceeded to outlined the six major greenhouse gases and set targets (of 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050) for national governments to cut down on the generation of these gases as waste or emit them as pollutants. The summit held in Kyoto Japan, entered into force in 2005. The Protocol which shared the ultimate objective of the Convention in Kyoto, Japan was to ensure that nations take steps to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases ensuring that they do not exceed levels that will enhance dangerous interference with the already delicate climate system. The convention also attempted to build upon with a view to enhancing many of the commitments that were already in place under the Convention (UNFCCC 2007).

Albeit the Kyoto Protocol was influenced by political factors, its ratification by most countries may be justified in light of the peculiar features of the global warming debacle, the existence of uncertainties, non-linearities and irreversibilities, possible catastrophes with small probabilities, asymmetric distribution of impacts, and the very long planning horizon (IPCC, 1996).

The scientific uncertainties enshrouding the climate change and global warming still remain a rallying point for critics.

The Kyoto Protocol tackles emissions of six greenhouse gases:

carbon dioxide (CO2);

methane (CH4);

nitrous oxide (N2O);

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);

perfluorocarbons (PFCs);

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

CURRENT LIBYAN ENERGY CLIME

The Libyan economy has been heavily dependent on the hydrocarbon industry since the discovery of crude oil. In 2008, the hydrocarbon industry in Libya accounted for over 95% of the country’s export earnings, 85-90% of fiscal revenues and over 70% of Libya’s gross domestic product (GDP) (IMF 2009). Libya holds the largest crude oil deposit in Africa amounting close to 44 billion barrels of oil reserves (OGJ 2010). EIA 2008 data indicate that 2008 total oil production in Libya was approximately 1.88 million barrels per day (bbl/d).

Energy is the backbone of the economy availability of cheap energy compared to other Mediterranean countries has helped to the expansion of all sectors, like industry, commerce, construction and services. However, as much gas is found in the crude (associated gas), Libya engages in gas flaring activities (to get rid of associated gas) thus ensuring a steady and direct injection of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

LIBYAN CONVENTIONAL ENERGY RESOURCES

Current energy supply in Libya cannot be considered as sustainable sources of energy, with increasing cost of energy from attendant increase in exploration and refining cost, there is also the case of fuel sources being limited and environmental problems. Fossil fuel is limited or finite and Libya relies on energy from two limited conventional sources.

Oil: With total discovered resources estimated to 44 billion bbl.

Natural Gas: With total discovered resources estimated to 1300 billion m3.

It is estimated that Libya’s oil resources will not last more than 50 years with current rate of exploration and production, albeit natural gas is expected to last a little longer (Saleh 2006)

It is projected that by the year 2050, prices of crude oil barrel may reach more than $200 while Libya would require about 70 million barrels of oil per year for electricity production requirement costing about 14 billion dollars annually. This would ultimately result in pressure on crude oil sources, its availability and increase in cost of generating electricity therefore underpinning the need for more sustainable forms of energy. By contrast, the abundance of potential sustainable energy in Libya decries the dependence on fossil fuels for example; the solar radiation in Libya is equivalent to a layer of 25 cm of crude oil per year on the land surface.

Energy and emissions figures in libya

Jacqueline 2000 reports that the amount of greenhouse gases emitted determines the magnitude and rate of future climate change, the sensitivity of climate to these gases and the degree to which the effects are modified by aerosol emissions. Libya, with 2002 estimations, had a 69.2 % energy consumption from oil and 30.8 % from natural gas, the emissions of CO2 attributed mainly to oil (71.7 %) and (28.3 %) natural gas (EIA, 2005), this means invariably that the energy sector which is the main source of greenhouse emissions in Libya depends mainly on fossil fuels (oil and natural gas). CO2 emission in Libya is put at 55.5 million tonnes per annum in 2009 following United Nations reports relating to 9.19 tonnes per capita and 31.5 tonnes per kilometre square (World Bank 2010).

Libyan Energy consumption by Sector

Current Libyan Energy consumption shows a total dependence on energy from fossil fuel sources. With domestic consumption of 273,000 bbl/d in 2008, shared within the sectors as described below.

Residential 34%

Industry 27%

Commercial 27%

Transport 12%

Source: Oil and Gas Directory 2010.

Figure 1: Current energy consumption in Libya by sector

Table 1: Energy Production in Libya

Type

Production

Consumption

Export

Natural Gas

12 b m3/y

3 b m3/y

9 b m3/y

Oil

0.6 b bbl/y

0.1 b bbl/y

0.5 b bbl/y

Electicity

20 T Wh/y

Source: Saleh 2006

Environmental Impact – Carbon Implication/ Future projections

Libyan power stations utilize only fuel from fossil sources to generate electricity, and with the high demand of energy, from all the sectors which is estimated to more than double by 2050, there is going to be substantial increase in CO2 emissions by 2050, thus raising atmospheric carbon levels and contributing ever so gravely to the already deteriorating state of the climate. With the varied effect of global warming already being felt steps need to be taken to limit further emissions and manage present situation.

“Anthropic emissions of CO2 amounted to 26 billion tonnes in 2004. In a reference scenario extrapolating current trends, CO2 emissions are set to double by 2050, to more than 50 billion tonnes of CO2 a year. Continuing this trend would lead to an atmospheric concentration of CO2 exceeding 1,000ppm (parts per million) at the end of the 21st century, a concentration that is totally unacceptable in terms of its climate impact and its socio-economic consequences” (IFP 2007).

Global Warming Trends/ Future Trends

In a bid to predict future climate change conditions, Scientists develop mathematically-based climate models. Adopting different assumptions on how various factors play to predict how atmospheric CO2 levels and temperatures will change in future.

The variables in each model include:

Population growth rate

Economic development

Energy use

Efficiency of energy use

Mix of energy technologies

“The graph below shows the results from three climate models used by the IPCC, with predictions starting in 1990 and ending in the year 2100. In all three, the global population rate rises during the first half of the century, and then declines.

The A1B model assumes rapid economic growth and increased equity-the reduction of regional differences in per-person income. New and more efficient technologies are introduced, without relying heavily on a single energy source.

The A1F1 model is the same as A1B, but assumes the continued use of fossil fuel-intensive technologies.

In the B1 model, the world moves rapidly from a producer-consumer economy toward a service and information economy. There is a reduction in the use of raw materials, and an emphasis on clean and efficient technologies and improved equity.

Other models have been developed, each based upon a different set of assumptions.

Figure 2: Adapted from IPCC, Third Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2001.

Global temperature increases predicted by three different IPCC climate models.

Although differing in degree, these three climate prediction models show similar trends:

The projected rate of global warming in the future is much larger than the rate of global warming during the 20th century.

Predicted rates of global warming are greater than any seen in the past 10,000 years”. (Exploring earth 2009)

From the chart above it is clear where we have to take a stand. With the above stated premise and the statistical review, it is imperative to develop a strategy that first curtails present carbon emissions and subsequently reduces the overall generation from various sources described above.

MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE VIA LIBYAN ENERGY POLICY – INCORPORATING RENEWABLE ENERGY

Strategies for reducing CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 and Implementation Techniques

Taking into cognisance current emission trends and sectors fingered in CO2 emissions, cutting down of emission cannot be over emphasized. A proactive approach to detailing of strategic plans of action for implementation must take into account past emission log; fully understand the current situation and project reduction measures that proffer solutions through a cost effective and practicable approach. To achieve these, the need to fully understand the scope of the problems at hand is imperative. To this end, I propose a utilitarian based all inclusive approach to reducing 80% emission by 2050. My approach is based on the incorporation of renewable energy in the Libyan energy policy.

Libyan Renewable Energy Potential

Libyan geographical location positions 88% of its area in the Sahara desert region of Africa, where there is a high propensity of solar energy which can be used to generate electricity via solar energy conversions, of both photovoltaic panels, and or thermally. According to the trans Mediterranean interconnection for concentrating solar power (MED-CSP)highlights Libya’s renewable energy potention as depicted in the table below.

Table 2: Renewable energy sources for Libya

Type

Potentiality

Solar electricity

140,000 TWh/y

Wind electricity

15 TWh/y

Biomass

2 TWh/y

Total

157,000 TWh/y

Source: Saleh 2006

.This shows enough renewable resource potential to meet 3 times electricity demand in Libya by the year 2050

Renewable energy hold advantages over conventional fossil fuel sources for the provision of energy in that they portend convenience and are economically effective and viable in many areas of applications. Libyan renewable energy resource consists of photovoltaic conversion of solar energy, solar thermal applications, wind energy, and Biomass

Solar Energy – conversion of solar energy in Libya for electricity generations could be in two forms, the utilization of photovoltaic’s or solar thermal application.

Thermal Conversions

Solar heaters were introduced in Libya in 1983 with a pilot project that included 10 systems. The effectiveness of these systems has led to installation of about 2000 additional solar heaters. Figures show that water heating consumes about 12% of energy from national electricity production however, fundamental issues limit wider application of thermal converters for water heating in Libya, these issues include;

Absence of decentralised national or personal electricity generation industry.

Lack of information for the people.

Low electric energy tariff.

Solar Photovoltaic’s

Operating on the simple principle of direct conversion of solar power into electricity, achieved by the agitation of electrons in P-N junctions by photons which thus creates an electric current which is tapped of by conducting wires.

PV resource potential within Libya is enormous; current small scale applications highlight the use of PV in the following areas;

PV in Microwave Communication Networks – Amongst the 500 repeater station in Libya, 9 have been run by photovoltaic systems up until the end of 1997 producing a total peak power of 10.5 KWp. Of these, four still run after 26 years of work, with minimal maintenance as the batteries which they use are open type batteries and were replaced three times with an average lifetime of eight years. With the technical and economical success of PV systems, all communication networks previously powered by diesel generators were converted to PV systems thus effectively bringing the total number of PV run station to about 80. The total installed photovoltaic peak power by 2005 was around 420 KWp. (Saleh Ibrahim et al., 2003).

PV in Cathodic protection – Saleh Ibrahim et al., (2004), showed it cost $1.4 to supply one KWh of daily supply load of 15 KWh for a cathodic protection (CP) station located 5 Km from a 11 KV electric grid. Also another study showed that PV systems were more convenient and economical for the production of a daily CP load of 7.5 KWh from a distance of more than 1.2 Km from the 11 KV electric grid. This highlighted the importance and value of PV systems and hence their application.

Further Future Applications

PV systems in Rural Electrification

In Libya rural areas face electrification problems because they are far away from the national grid and it wouldn’t be economical to extend electric network to low demand areas, to this end the incorporation of PV systems would be invaluable. Currently, Libya plans to electrify rural areas consist of scattered houses, villages, and water pumping with PV systems, these Villages include; Mrair Gabis village, Swaihat village, Intlat village, Beer al-Merhan village, and Wadi Marsit village (Saleh Ibrahim et al., 2006)

The installation of PV systems started in the middle of 2003. The total number of systems installed by General Electric company of Libya (GECOL) is 340 with a total capacity of 220 kWp, while the ones installed by the Center of Solar Energy Studies (CSES) and the Saharan Center are 150 with a total power of 125 KWp. The applications are: 380 systems for isolated houses, 30 systems for police stations, and 100 systems for street illumination. The total peak power is 345 KWp.

PV for Water pumping

The use of PV systems in Water pumping portends great advantages for rural communities as remote wells which are used to supply water for human and live stock that are located in rural places.

Environment: It is worthy to note that the environmental impact of PV is less than that of any other renewable (Boyle 2004), however, concerns have been showed for toxic compounds used in the production of some PV e.g. Cadmium.

Economics: From the word go, PV systems have continued to improve in cost effectiveness and if such a trend keeps up, it could become a force for contention with fossil fuels.

Integration: With no medium for storing of electricity and the fluctuating nature of PV generation problems accrue over integration of PV electricity to the National grid. Although, the grid is designed to cope with massive fluctuations in demand, and similarly fluctuating supply like PV considered negative loads, analyst suggest that without large amounts of cheap electricity storage PV sources cannot make major contributions (Boyle 2004). Presently the conversion efficiency of PV cells is low (15%-30%) so this may hamper possibilities.

Wind Energy

Since 1940, wind energy has been utilized for water pumping in many oases. The potential of this renewable energy source has not been fully harnesses in Libya especially for powering rural communities and farms and use in irrigation. 2004 Libyan measurements of the wind speed statistics showed that there is a high potential for wind energy in Libya with the average wind speed at a 40 meter height is between 6- 7.5 m/s. The Libyan government has seen the potential in wind energy generation of electricity and have contracted the the project for use of wind energy for electricity production. This project includes the installation of a 25 MW wind farm as a pilot project. Also, a project to prepare two Atlas that provide fast access to reliable solar and wind data throughout Libya is also been contracted for. The Atlas will allow for accurate analysis of the available wind and solar resources anywhere in Libya, and will be therefore be invaluable to the planning of profitable wind farms and solar projects.

In other to meet the target of an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, it is imperative to tackle from source electricity generation which utilises fossil fuels by the setting up of an energy policy that seeks to ensure that energy from renewable energy sources contributes 10% to Libya’s electricity demand by the year 2020. As stated above, photovoltaic has been used for small and medium sized remote applications with proven economic feasibility; however, several constraints and barriers, including costs exist. The experience of rural applications shows that there is a high potential of building large scale PV plants in the south of the Mediterranean.

The potential for utilizing, home grid connected photovoltaic systems, large scale grid connected electricity generation using Wind farms, and solar thermal for electricity generation is great, with capacities of several thousands of MW. At the business end, Libya can expand its electricity generation capacities from its eneormous renewable source to meet the demands of Mediterranean countries, taking advantage of its proximity to the European energy market. This can be considered as a future plan. The potential for Solar energy resources to effectively replace oil and gas has to be harnessed. Renewable energy resources portend good opportunities for technology transfer and international cooperation. In the current Libyan energy clime, the decentralised nature of renewable energy technologies make them particularly well suited for rural energy development further enhancing use of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) adopted by Kyoto Protocol in renewable energy applications that would reduce CO2 emissions.

For Proper development of Libyan Renewable energy potential, the following have to be met:

Promotion of private investment in transfer of renewable energy technology and services.

Introduce renewable energy in formal education curriculum as well as Increase informal education on all energy aspects.

Development of policies that support the introduction of renewables via local, national and international partnerships Courage the international investment to invest in the industry.

International cooperation that seeks to aid the development and construction of large scale solar energy applications as a pilot project.

Development and support, of technical, financial, and institutional, research mechanisms for sustainable development.

Development of national energy policies and regulatory frameworks that would aid in the creation of the necessary economic, social and institutional conditions in the energy sector and improve access to reliable, affordable, economically viable socially acceptable and environmentally sound energy services for sustainable development.

CONCLUSION

Current Libyan energy policy depicts a system that lacks efficiency in the production and consumption of energy, challenge lies in the development of energy efficiency in the various sectors with several barriers including: lack of access to technology, capacity building, and institutional issues. In other to achieve energy efficiency in both energy consumption and production sides, it is imperative to incorporate renewable energy in all energy end-using sectors, the focus is on improving equipment efficiency of services, such as heating and air conditioning equipment, appliances, lighting and motors. On the supply and production side, energy management should focus on incorporation of renewable energy in energy generation, improved industrial processes, co generation and energy recovery systems. Energy efficiency can help reducing cost, preserving natural resources and protecting the environment..

Furthermore, as Libya is a non annex I country under the UNFCCC, and a signatory to the Kyoto protocol, Libya is currently eligible for the CDM. The main emitters of CO2 in 2003 are fuel combustion in the power generation sector. Libya’s energy related CO2 emissions increased by more than 78% in one decade mostly due to increased energy supply and significant reduction could be achieved if improved energy utilization efficiency by the major energy sectors is encouraged.

Conclusively, The Legislative Act Number 7 of 1982 concerning the protection of the environment which is Libya’s biggest environmental protection act looks into a holistic plan to protect the environment, water, land, wildlife, plants, food etc from the deleterious activities of both man and nature. This piece of legislation which has a total of 11 sections and 75 articles was promulgated by the General People’s Congress, Libya’s highest executive authority. Below are the underlisted sections of this legislation:

Section 1 – General Provisions

Section 2 – Protection of the Atmosphere

Section 3 – Protection of Seas and Marine Resources

Section 4 – Protection of Water Resources

Section 5 – Protection of Foodstuffs

Section 6 – Environmental Health

Section 7 – Protection from Contagious Diseases

Section 8 – Soils and Plant Protection

Section 9 – Protection of Wildlife

Section 10 – Interim Provisions

Section 11 – Penalties

The import of these legislation, and strict enforcements would help Libya in meeting the 2050 target of 80% reduction in CO2 emission.