Relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth of Pakistan

1.1 OVERVIEW:

The topic of this research is relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth of Pakistan. Nowadays in Pakistan inflation rate is high, when inflation crosses logical limits, it has negative effects on GDP growth. It drops the value of money, resulting in uncertainty of the value of profit & loss of borrowers, lenders, buyers and sellers. The rising the uncertainty in saving and investment. In Feb 2009 CPI Inflation rate of Pakistan was 22.97% and GDP was 5.8%. GDP and inflation rate negative correlation present even when other factors are included to the study and the investment rate, population of growth, and the constant advances in technology and still when the factor in the effects of supply shocks features of a part of the observed period

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT:

In this research determine how much rate of inflation affect the GDP growth of Pakistan. In this research also determine inflation rate significantly affect the GDP growth of Pakistan. GDP shows the economic performance of a country so it is of most importance for concerned departments and economists of that country. On the other hand rising inflation can impact negatively on GDP and the objectives that a country achieves can be demolished by rising inflation.

1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF RESEARCH:

If GDP growing fast and rate of inflation is falling down, it is good for the economy. More money comes in Pakistan and financer invests more and more capital. GDP indicates all sectors such as agriculture, telecommunication, services, manufacturing and Per Capita Income. These all indicators represent the country’s economy. If these sectors were growing fast, country’s economy also grows faster.

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Foreign investors observe the market condition of Pakistan and foreign investors must see the GDP & Inflation Rate of Pakistan. If the GDP growing faster and inflation going down, foreign investors invest more money into Pakistan. If GDP is growing faster, the investor earns more money and achieves good profit and aspires to keep doing business for long term and expects less risk for the loss. Investors also expect for greater dividend in real terms, if rate of inflation is dropping down.

This research is also significant for foreign investor and domestic investor of stock market. If inflation is increasing, investors invest less in market because investors do not expect good profit and dividend for the shares and also expect huge risk in market for long term. If any country’s inflation rate is increasing, it is very difficult for financial institution to maintain the trust of investors because there is a chance of loss for the investors.

This research is also significant for exporters. Exporters must see the inflation and GDP of Pakistan. If inflation is increasing, exporters export fewer goods because goods are expensive for exporters due to high inflation. Exporters export more goods, when inflation is low because goods are affordable for exporters and easy to export goods.

This research is also significant for fresh graduate students. If inflation is high, there is less chance of jobs because the rate of unemployment is also high due to inflation rate. Fresh graduate also do not start business because it is carries more risk and there is chance waste of capital.

1.4 HYPOTHESES:

H1: There is a negatively relationship between the Inflation rate and economic growth of Pakistan.

H2: Inflation rate significantly effect on economic growth rate of Pakistan.

1.5 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH:

The overall summary of this research defined in the following parts:

First chapter is Introduction. In this part describe overview of all research, research problem, hypotheses of this research and definitions used in this research.

Literature Review is second chapter. Describe summary of all articles, which related to this research.

Third Chapter is Research Method. In this part describe data collection method, how sample size of this research and also describe technique of this research.

Fourth Chapter is Results. In this part includes interpretations and findings in relevance to the hypotheses test. In this part also describe hypotheses assessment summary in table form.

Fifth and last Chapter is Conclusion. In this part includes discussion based on this research finding in setting with the past research findings. In this part also describe some recommendations and implications of this research and also describe future research possibilities. Ending this part with conclusion.

1.6 DEFINITIONS:

GDP and Inflation are the key macroeconomic indicators of the economic performance of any country. The relationship and cause & affects are very important for any economic performance of the country.

GDP Economic Growth:

GDP indicates only currently produced goods and services. It is a flow measure of output per time period. For Example, per quarter or per year and indicates only goods and services produced during this interval. Such market transactions as exchange of previously produced houses, cars or factories do not enter into GDP. However, two types of goods used in the production process are counted in GDP. The first is Capital Goods and other type of goods is Intermediate Goods (Froyen, 2005).

Components of GDP:

GDP is broken down into the components. The first component is Consumption component of GDP. Consumption consists of the household sectors. Consumption can be further broken down into consumer durable goods (e.g., automobiles, television), nondurable consumption goods (e.g., foods, beverage, and clothing) and consumer services (e.g., medical services, haircuts) (Froyen, 2005).

The second component of GDP is Investment. Investment is part of GNP (Gross National Product) purchased by the business sector in addition residential construction. Investment divided into three sub components. First is business fixed investment, second is residential construction investment and final id inventory investment (Froyen, 2005).

The third component of GDP is government purchases. It is goods and services that are the parts of recent output that goes to the government sector such as federal government, state and local government (Froyen, 2005).

The final component of GDP is Net exports. Net Exports equal total (gross) export minus imports. Gross exports are currently produced services & goods and sold to foreign buyers, should be counted in GDP. Imports are purchases by domestic buyers of goods and services produced abroad and should not be counted in GDP. Imported goods and services are, however, included in the consumption, investment and government spending totals in GDP. Therefore, need to subtract the value of imports to arrive at the total of domestically produced goods and services (Froyen, 2005).

Inflation:

Inflation is when prices continue to keep rising, typically as a result of overheated economic growth or extra capital in the market search for too few opportunities. Wages usually creep upwards, so that companies can retain good workers (Amadeo, 2008).

How Protection Inflation:

If person are locking inflation protect alone, one best way to protect. Person purchase treasury bills and bonds; there pay fixed rates of interest. However, twice a year the governments readjust the principle in response to changes in the CPI, published monthly by the Statistics Bureau. It’s mean, as inflation increases, the value of bonds increases. This is best way for protect inflation, when inflation increases (Amadeo, 2008).

Aggregate Demand Theory:

Aggregate Demand Theory shows that the negatively relationship between Inflation rate (price Level) and output/income (National Product). Aggregate Demand theory was developed by the English economist John Maynard Keyness (1883-1946). Term of ‘Aggregate’ was also used as ‘aggregate spending’ and ‘aggregate expenditure’ (Case and Fair, 1992).

How Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve deriving:

The aggregate demand (AD) curve shows that the negative/inversely relationship between the aggregate output/income and the Inflation/price level and the aggregate demand (AD) curve is showing downward sloping (Case and Fair, 1992).

Figure 1.1

INFL2

INFL1

Inflation Rate

AD

y2 y1Real Output/Income (National Product)

(Source: Case and Fair, 1992)

Reason for downward-slopping Aggregate Demand Curve:

The increase price level/inflation causes the demand for money to increase, which cause the interest rate to increase and then the higher interest rate causes aggregation out to down (Case and Fair, 1992).

The decrease in consumption brought about by a rises in the interest rate contributes to the generally fall in output. (Case and Fair, 1992).

CHAPTER 2:

LITERATURE REVIEW

Metin (1998) analyzed the empirical relationship between inflation and growth for the Turkish economy by a multivariate co-integration analysis. Metin (1998) developed model shows that the scaled income growth significantly affects inflation in Turkey. The qualified model of inflation was constant and it estimated a model previously. In this paper developed model because if inflation change one percent so it significantly affect to Growth Rate.

An extensive literature had examined the relationship between the budget deficit/Income growth and inflation. At a theoretical level, Sargent and Wallace (1981) showed that under certain conditions, if the times paths of government spending and taxes were exogenous, bond-financed deficits were non-sustainable, and the central bank should eventually monetize the deficit. Money supply and inflation was rising in the long run. These findings had subsequently been generalized for the open economy case and for alternative forms of financing. Increase money supply and inflation in the long run due to the government spending and economical condition were not sustainable (Scarth, 1987; Langdana, 1990).

Metin (1995) analyzed inflation for Turkey using a general framework of sector relationships and found that fiscal expansion was a determining factor for inflation. The excess demand for money affected inflation positively, but only in the short run. On the other hand, imported inflation, the excess demand for goods, and the excess demand for assets in the capital markets had little or no effect on inflation. A key policy implication of was that Turkish inflation could be reduced rapidly by eliminating the budget deficit. The demand for money, assets and goods impact on inflation (Metin, 1995).

The losses were automatically financed by the credits extended by the Central Bank to the SEE’s, resulting in high money growth. For 1950 period in Turkish inflation rising and balance of Payment had difficulties. Most the private firm purchase commodities at official price and reached experienced losses (Aktan, 1964; Okyar, 1965; Fry, 1972; Krueger, 1974, Onis and Riedel, 1993).

Metin (1958) implemented a fairly typical International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported stabilization program, which improved the foreign-exchange situation and drastically reduced inflation. The most important component of the program was an increase in the prices of SEE goods, a component that was featured prominently in the 1970 and 1980 reforms as well. Raising those prices in 1958 resulted in an immediate and once-and-for-all increase in the price level, after which the reduced rate of expansion of Central Bank credits reduced inflation. Metin (1958) analyzed inflation dropped from 25% in 1958 to less than 5% in 1959, real gross domestic product (which had been declining) started growing immediately due to the greater availability of imports. In 1958, Turkey improved foreign exchange situation and reduced inflation. Increase the price of those which reduced rate of expansion of central bank credits reduced inflation by 5% in a year and due to this reduced inflation, GDP started growing immediately.

Metin (1998) analyzed that Turkey was among the more rapidly growing developing countries during most of the 1960s, with an annual inflation rate of 5%-10%. The nominal exchange rate was kept constant after the 1958 devaluation. Investment spending increased and was financed mainly by foreign aid. In the late 1960s, foreign id did not increase, but the rate of investment spending was maintained. In addition, some difficulties appeared in obtaining imports, creating visible restraints on economic activity and growth. Turkey’s Economic volatility in deferent sectors such as in the late 1960s, foreign aid did not increase, but the rate of investment spending was maintained. In addition, some difficulties appeared in obtaining imports, creating visible restraints on economic activity and growth

Barro (1995) studied that If a number of countries characteristics were held constant, in that case regression results shows that an raise in average inflation of ten proportion points per year reduces the growth rate of real per capita income GDP by 0.2 to 0.3 proportion points per year and lowers the proportion of investment to GDP by 0.4 to 0.6 proportion points. Over here come to know that some characteristics were stay constant but some of effected due to increase of inflation rate result reduce the growth rate of real per capita.

Barro (1995) analyzed the result that inflation control on growth looks little; the long term inflation effects on standards of living were considerable. such as, a shift in monetary policy that increase the long-term average of inflation rate increase by ten percentage points per year was projected to down the level of real GDP after 30 years by 4% to 7%, more than enough to justify a strong interest in price constancy. The inflation rate’s influence intensively effected lives standard which identifies by the Monitory Policy, average inflation rate and GDP.

To evaluate the effects of inflation on economic growth, Barro (1995) Regression Equation method used to which many other determinants of growth were held constant. The framework was one that in this paper had developed and applied previously. Barro (1995) identified that tool through in this paper assessed influence of inflation on the development of economy and to evaluate the effects of inflation on economic growth.

Fama (1981) explained these anomalous stock return-inflation relations. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that the negative relations between stock returns and inflation positive relations between stock returns and real variables which were more fundamental determinants of equity values. The inflation had negative influence on stock return and also real variable

Metin (1995) examined the relationship between the public- sector deficit and inflation. System co-integration analysis suggests three stationary relationships. Although weak relation does not hold for variables concerned (except Ay), one was still able to develop a conditional model for inflation. In that model, an increase in the scaled budget deficit immediately increases inflation. Real income growth had a negative immediate effect and positive second-lag effect on inflation. The shortfall affected inflation at a second lag. These dynamics were consistent with institutional and general knowledge of the economy. The conditional model of inflation was constant over the sample period, even though several significant structural breaks occurred during the period. Breaks included three devaluations, structural stabilization, and economic liberalization programs. The major finding from the new equation was that budget deficits (as well as real income growth) significantly affect inflation in Turkey.

Braun and Tella (2000) studied that there was a positive partial correlation between inflation and corruption for several countries for which data was available. Furthermore, argue that causality was from inflation variability to corruption. There was a positive relationship between inflation and corruption.

Dornbusch and Frenkel (1973) had developed alternative approaches to be analysis of growth and inflation. found that the effect of inflation on per capita real balance, consumption and the capital-labor ratio remain ambiguous if the yield on capital was a function of per capita real balance or if consumption was an increasing function of the rate of inflation. That ambiguity was in general not entirely removed by consideration of maximization and a specification of the nature of the service of real balance. The alternative effects inflation on per capital real balance, consumption and the capital labor ratio.

Fama (1981) tested out the hypothesis that the negative relations between real stock returns and inflation observed during the post-1953 period were the consequence of proxy effects. Stock returns were determined by forecasts of more relevant real variables, and negative stock return-inflation relations were induced by negative relations between inflation and real activity. This relation inflation, real activity and stock returns define through the money demand and the quantity theory of money.

Barro (1995) evaluated the effect on investment shows up clearly only for inflation rates above 10%-20% per year. For lower inflation rates, the estimated effect of inflation on the investment ratio tends not pointedly different from zero. The investment effects positively when inflation above 10% to 20% per year but lower inflation effect on investment negatively and zero inflation not significantly effect on investment.

Barro (1995) analyzed that the Inflation effects on growth and investment were significantly negative and long term Inflation to reduce the value of growth and investment. The analysis was that the effects of inflation on growth were significantly negative relation and also the effects of inflation on investment were significantly negative relation.

Barro (1995) the values of inflation for three periods (i.e. 1965-75, 1975-85 and 1985-90) were not differing significantly from one to another. If different coefficient of inflation test for each period, then resulting values was not significantly from one to another period. If the inflation rise 10% year, growth rate of real per Capita income of GDP by 0.2% to 0.3% point per year.

Khan and Senhadji (2001) located that under floating exchange rates, growing domestic inflation can move up long-run output if credit was rationed (inflation was low). However, there exist inflation thresholds as were observed empirically inflation and output were positively (negatively) correlated below (above) the threshold. With fixed exchange rates, the scope for credit to be rationed depends in a relatively complicated way on the rate of foreign and domestic inflation, and increasing foreign inflation always reduces long-run output.

Barro (1995) calculated the standard deviation and analyzed the result was that if the standard deviation of inflation was included in the regressions, then the estimated coefficient on average inflation changes little, and the estimated effect of the standard deviation of inflation was still around zero. Standard deviation of inflation included in the regression, result of estimated coefficient on average inflation was little and standard deviation was around zero.

Results were directly related to the literature on the costs of inflation. Despite a long tradition of research on the subject, empirical estimates were scant. Following Bailey (1956) estimating the area under the money demand curve, Fischer and Lucas (1981) found that for the US, an inflation rate of 10-percent per annum would cost 0.3-

0.9 percent of national income each year. More recently, Fischer (1993) estimated in a cross-section of countries that an increase in the inflation rate of 100 percentage points would lead to a reduction in the annual growth rate of 3.9 percentage points.

Barro (1997) found that the negative relation between inflation and growth was stronger for low levels of inflation, and that inflation variance was also negatively correlated with growth. The estimated in a cross section of countries that an increase in the average inflation rate of 10 percentage points per year leads to a reduction in the growth rate of GDP of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points per year.

Braun and Tella (2000) presented the cross section estimates of the correlation between inflation variability and corruption. Average the data for 1982-1994 to obtain a maximum sample. Document a positive and significant correlation between measure of noise in the price system (Inflation Variance) and corruption. The Positive and significant correlation between the inflation and corruption

Barro (1995) analyzed that it was also possible that the inflation produce a positive and significant relationship between inflation and growth. This thing happen, when demand of goods increase.

Braun and Tella (2000) analyzed the result was that the increase in the cost of audit leads to an increase in corruption and in the extant fixed cost of investing. This in turn leads to a decline in aggregate investment and growth. Using the evidence that relative price oscillations increase with inflation variability, assume that the cost of audit was an increasing function of inflation variability. If corruption was increasing, Growth and Investment was decrease because negatively impact on growth and investment. Inflation was increasing due to corruption was rising.

Barro (1995) evaluated that in recent years, many central banks, including the Bank of England, more emphasis on price stability. One indicator concern, the Bank of England began in February 1993 to issue the Inflation Report. Central bank gave more importance on price stability and monetary policy defines in term of interest rate or growth with stable and low inflation.

In this paper contributes to closing this perception gap. Find a theoretical and empirical link between inflation variability and corruption. Since corruption had been found to had a negative/inversely impact on growth and investment. There was an indirect, corruption affected cost of inflation. Estimate that a one standard deviation raise in inflation variability from the median can lead to a reduction in the annual growth rate of one third of a percentage point and a reduction in the investment rate of 1-percent. Corruption was negative impact on growth and investment. Corruption affected cost of inflation (Mauro, 1995; Knack and Keefer, 1995; Kaufmann and Wei, 1999).

Fama (1981) found the result was that the negative relations between inflation and real activity predicted by the money demand-quantity theory model and observed consistently in the regressions were negative partial correlations. The relations between inflation and real activity predicted by the money demand quantity theory model

Braun and Tella (2000) calculated that increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation from the median leads to an increase in corruption of 0.12 of a standard deviation. Repeating the above calculations obtain that an increase in inflation variance of one standard deviation leads to a decline in investment of 1.02 percent of GDP, and a decline in growth of 0.33 percentage points. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated for the impact of an increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation range from 1.02 percent to 2.72 percent of GDP for investment, and from 0.33 to 0.88 percentage points for growth. Increase in inflation of one standard deviation leads to decline in investment of 1.02 % of GDP and decline in growth 0.33 % points.

Braun and Tella (2000) estimated the effects were also economically significant. Researcher basic cross section approximate suggests that a one standard deviation increase in the variance of inflation associated with an increase in corruption of up to 0.47 points, or 32-percent of the standard deviation of corruption. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated can be used to calculate an indirect cost of variable inflation that operates through corruption. Researcher find that an increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation from the median can lead to a decline in investment of 2.7-percent of GDP, and to a decline in the annual growth rate of 0.9 – percentage points. Increase in inflation of one standard deviation leads to decline in investment of 2.7 % of GDP and decline in growth 0.9 % points.

Braun and Tella (2000) calculated that increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation from the median leads to an increase in corruption of 0.12 of a standard deviation. Braun and Tella (2000) analyzed the result was that an increase in inflation variance of one standard deviation leads to a decline in investment of 1.02 percent of GDP, and a decline in growth of 0.33 percentage points. Braun and Tella (2000) estimated for the impact of an increase in inflation variability of one standard deviation range from 1.02 percent to 2.72 percent of GDP for investment, and from 0.33 to 0.88 percentage points for growth. Increase in inflation of one standard deviation leads to decline in investment of 1.02 % of GDP and decline in growth 0.33 % points.

Fama (1981) analyzed two types of models for expected inflation were estimated and compared. One approach was interest rates into expected inflation rates and expected real returns. Since the interest rates were observed at the beginning of the time intervals of interest, this approach estimates the ex ante expected inflation rates which eventually allow to document the negative relations between ex ante expected stock returns and expected inflation rates. The negative relation between the expected stock returns and expected inflation rates

Fama (1981) analyzed second approach, based on money demand and quantity theory of money, estimates conditional expected inflation rates as functions of money and real activity growth rates. Since measures of current money and current and future real activity growth rates were major explanatory variables, these conditional expected inflation rates were not ex ante measures. Fama (1981) also analyzed the money demand-quantity theory models of inflation provide the empirical economic story which explains why the ex ante expected inflation rates extracted from interest rates were also strongly related to current and future real activity. Inflation rate were strongly related to interest rate because of money demand theory and quantity theory of money.

Fisher (1911) observed the relations between inflation and the measures of current and future real activity which this model presumes were important in the determination of stock market returns. The theoretical basis for the study of inflation-real activity relations was a rational expectations combination of money demand theory. The theory and empirical results were abstracted from my 1980 paper. In this paper presented just enough of the theory and evidence to document the inflation-real activity relations of interest.

Verme (2004) was study the Walrasian equilibrium; changes in either the domestic inflation rate or in the world inflation rate had qualitatively similar effects. When credit was rationed, changes in the domestic inflation rate and the world inflation rate always affect the domestic capital stock differently. This occurs because credit rationing breaks the link between the marginal product of capital and the rate of interest on loans: what matters was how the domestic and foreign rates of inflation affect the self-selection constraint and researcher affect this differently. Whenever there were restrictions on capital availability, the domestic and foreign inflation rates react differently on the economy.

Verme (2004) analyzed theory of Walrasian equilibrium was that changes in the domestic rate of inflation can had very different effects under credit rationing. Again, this happens because what matters was how the domestic inflation rate affects the self-selection constraint. Higher domestic inflation can actually relax this constraint by increasing the rate of interest on loans, and hence attenuating the incentives of agents to misrepresent the type. The domestic inflation can also cause dearth of capital if the interest rate rises for the reason of inflation.

Verme (2004) presented a model of a small open economy where financial intermediaries make a real allocate function then consider the relative merits of different exchange regimes, focusing my attention on policies that had been implemented in Latin America and, particularly, in Argentina and Peru. This document puts forward an example of an open economy where financial intermediaries may cause situations where credit may not always be restricted.

Verme (2004) observed that the inflation thresholds as were observed empirically: increasing inflation beyond the threshold level reduces domestic growth output. However in economies with fixed exchange rates, increases in the foreign (and domestic) rate of inflation always had adverse consequences for real activity. In case of variable exchange rates, inflation can encourage production if credit was limited, however if the inflation exceeds beyond a certain limit then it reduce the output.

Mauro (1995) estimates may be used to derive an indirect, corruption-induced, cost of inflation variability. This cost can be calculated by multiplying estimated of the impact of inflation variability on corruption by exogenous estimates of the impact of corruption on investment and growth. Given that Mauro (1995) presented such estimates, this calculation was relatively straightforward. The cost of inflation can also increase if corruption impacts investment and growth.

Fama (1981) explanation of the absence of positive simple relations between money supply and real activity growth rates during the post- 1953 period was an interesting topic for future research. This was especially so since the monetary measure used, the growth rate of the base, was the one most under the control of the monetary authorities. Studying the relationship between money supply and growth rate reveals that the said rate was under most control of the controlling authorities.

Braun and Tella (2000) estimated that an increase in corruption of one standard deviation leads to a decline in the average investment rate of 8.5 percent of GDP. In this paper also estimates that GDP growth would decline by 2.76 percentage points per year. It was estimated that a slight increase in the corruption can greatly decline the investment.

Fama (1981) tested that the effect hypothesis implies that actions of real activity should dominate dealings of inflation when both were used as explanatory variables in real stock return regressions. In monthly, quarterly, and annual data, growth rates of money and real activity eliminate the negative relations between real stock returns and expected inflation rates. In the annual stock return regressions unexpected inflation also loses its explanatory power when located in competition with future real activity. Sometimes inflation loses its quality of increasing growth rates when there was real economic growth in the future.

Fama (1981) analyzed the hypothesis for both common stocks and bonds were that expected real returns were determined in the real sector. Spurious negative relations between inflation and expected real returns were then induced by a somewhat unexpected characteristic of the money supply process during the post- 1953 period, in particular, the fact that most of the variation in real money demanded in response to variation in real activity had been accommodated through offsetting variation in inflation rather than through nominal money growth. After the analysis of securities, it